2014 Hugo Prediction

This page is dedicated to my 2014 Hugo prediction. Click here to see the Too Early Hugo 2015 Prediction.

Hugo award was given to Ann Leckie for Ancillary Justice on August 17, 2014.

Ancillary JusticeNeptune's BroodMemory of LightParasiteWarbound

1. Ann Leckie, Ancillary Justice, 33.6% (winner)
2. Charles Stross, Neptune’s Brood, 24.9%
3. Robert Jordan and Brandon Sanderson, The Wheel of Time, 17.2%
4. Mira Grant, Parasite, 12.4%
5. Larry Correia, Warbound, 11.9%

Check out the most recent Prediction for a more in-depth discussion of the prediction model, or the Final Analysis for a discussion of the results.

Chaos Horizon is a website that predicts the Hugo and Nebula winners for Best Novel using statistical modeling. Long story short, the Hugo formula uses 8 different weighted indicators, based on data mining of the past 15 years of Hugo winners, to predict this year’s winner.

For more information on how the formula is derived, please see the Hugo Prediction Indicators and the Methodology.


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