Reports

Chaos Horizon is a website dedicated to predicting the Hugo and Nebula Awards for Best Novel by using statistical and data mining techniques. Periodically, I will be issuing comprehensive reports on various analytical issues facing the Hugo and Nebula awards, and they’ll be collected on this page.

The Hugo Award and Publication Dates: Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Conclusions
Conclusion: There is a Hugo publication award window from May to October in which ~75% of Hugo nominees are published.

The Hugo and Nebula Awards and Repeat Nominees: Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5 Part 6 Conclusions
Conclusion:: The Hugo and Nebula Best Novel awards demonstrate bias towards past Hugo and Nebula Best Novel nominees.

The Hugo and Nebula Awards and Young Adult Fiction, 2001-2014: Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Conclusions
Conclusion: The Hugo and Nebula awards rarely nominate YA works, and when they do, they are either by prior Hugo/Nebula nominees or extremely famous authors (i.e. J.K. Rowling).

The Hugo and Nebula Awards and Genre: Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5 Part 6 Part 7 Part 8
Conclusion: More complex in this case, but the Hugo and Nebula awards have rapidly changed from 2000 in the way they handle the fantasy genre, moving from excluding the genre to including it.

Hugo Award Nomination Ranges, 2006-20015: Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 Part 5
Conclusion: Participation in Hugo nomination of categories drops off very rapidly down the ballot.

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