2014 Hugo Prediction: Final Prediction
Here’s the final prediction for the 2014 Hugo, not taking into account the increased amount of voters due to various issue (see the Hugo Award Prediction: Storm Clouds post) below. Based on past Hugo performance, here’s how things would go:
1. 33.6% chance to win: Ann Leckie, Ancillary Justice
2. 24.9% chance to win: Charles Stross, Neptune’s Brood
3. 17.2% chance to win: Robert Jordan, The Wheel of Time
4. 12.4% chance to win: Mira Grant, Parasite
5. 11.9% chance to win: Larry Correia, Warbound
From a statistical perspective, Leckie is a clear frontrunner. She not only won the Nebula, but dominated the rest of the award season, winning the Clarke, the British SF Award, and racking up nominations for pretty much every single major award.
You might think Jordan is a little low, and he probably is. However, Jordan has zero Hugo history, and almost zero award history at all. If he wins this year, it’ll be because his fans have made a considerable push for him, not because he’s a natural for an award like the Hugo. Series fantasy simply doesn’t win awards like this, or hasn’t in the past.