Building the Nebula Model, Part 5

This post continues my discussion on building my 2015 Nebula Best Novel prediction. See Part 1 for an introduction, Part 2 for a discussion of my Indicators, Part 3 for a discussion of my methodology/math, and Part 4 for a discussion of accuracy.

Taken together, those posts should help explain to anyone new to Chaos Horizon how Chaos Horizon works. This post wraps things up with a to-do list for 2015. To update my model for 2015, this is what I need to do:

1. Update the data sets with the results of the 2014 Nebulas, Hugos, and everything else that happened last year.
2. Rethink the indicators, and possibly replace/refine some of them.
3. Reweight the indicators.
4. Test model reliability using the reweighed indicators.
5. Use the indicators to build probability tables for the 2015 Nebulas.
6. Run the probability tables through the weights to come up with the final results.

I won’t be able to get all of this done until mid-April. It doesn’t make any sense to run the numbers until the Hugo noms come out, and those will be coming out this Saturday (April 4th).

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4 responses to “Building the Nebula Model, Part 5”

  1. Tudor says :

    The rumor is that the Sad Puppy nominees are 100% of all the short fiction categories and 3 out of 5 in best novel. So no sense to run the numbers after the Hugos, too. And I hear that the people who run the Worldcon want to radically change the rules in order to prevent this from happening again. So we can throw away the history next year.

    • chaoshorizon says :

      Yes, it’s going to be an interesting few months. I don’t think the Nebula formula will be all that impacted by any Hugo related drama. I also wouldn’t bet money on the Hugo rules being changed that quickly: the WorldCon makes it pretty difficult to alter rules hastily.

      • Tudor says :

        Maybe, but they can easily give up to supporting membership or make it 5$ or 100$. And I think that any change can be easily adopted if it is a broad support for it.

    • NatLovin says :

      Even if there’s an agreement on a rules change this year, it takes two worldcons to approve changes, and, if one of the proposed changes from last year gets approved again this year, a third year for a popular vote.

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