Building the Nebula Model, Part 5
This post continues my discussion on building my 2015 Nebula Best Novel prediction. See Part 1 for an introduction, Part 2 for a discussion of my Indicators, Part 3 for a discussion of my methodology/math, and Part 4 for a discussion of accuracy.
Taken together, those posts should help explain to anyone new to Chaos Horizon how Chaos Horizon works. This post wraps things up with a to-do list for 2015. To update my model for 2015, this is what I need to do:
1. Update the data sets with the results of the 2014 Nebulas, Hugos, and everything else that happened last year.
2. Rethink the indicators, and possibly replace/refine some of them.
3. Reweight the indicators.
4. Test model reliability using the reweighed indicators.
5. Use the indicators to build probability tables for the 2015 Nebulas.
6. Run the probability tables through the weights to come up with the final results.
I won’t be able to get all of this done until mid-April. It doesn’t make any sense to run the numbers until the Hugo noms come out, and those will be coming out this Saturday (April 4th).