Goodreads Popularity and the Hugo and Nebula Contenders, February 2015

It’s the last of the month, so time to update my popularity charts. Now that we have the Nebula slate, I’m debuting a new chart:

Chart 1: Nebula Nominee Popularity on Goodreads and Amazon, February 2015
Nebula Pop Feb 2015

Nicholas Whyte over on From the Heart of Europe has been tracking similar data for several years now, although he uses Library Thing instead of Amazon. He’s got data for a few different awards going several years back. Like me, he’s noted that popularity on these lists is not a great indicator of winning. A few weeks ago (here and here) I took a close look at how Goodreads numbers track with Amazon and Bookscan. The news was disappointing: the numbers aren’t closely correlated. Goodreads tracks one audience, Amazon another, and BookScan a third. The ratio between Amazon rankings and Goodreads rankings can be substantial. Goodreads tends to overtrack younger (under 40), more internet-buzzed about books. You can see how Amazon shows McDevitt, Lui, Addison, and Leckie to be about the same level of popularity, whereas Goodreads has Leckie 10x more popular than McDevitt. What do we trust?

The real question is not who we trust, but how closely the Goodreads audience correlates either to the SFWA or WorldCon voters. It’s hard to imagine a book from the bottom of the chart winning over more popular texts, but McDevitt has won in the past, and I don’t think he was that much more popular in 2007 than in 2015. I think the chart is most useful when we compare like to like: if Annihilation and Ancillary Sword are selling to somewhat similar audience, VanderMeer has gotten more books out than Leckie. Hence, VanderMeer probably has an advantage. I’m currently not using these numbers to predict the Nebulas or Hugos, although I’d like to find a way to do so.

Now, on to the big chart. Here’s popularity and reader change for Goodreads for 25+ Hugo contenders, with Gannon and McDevitt freshly added:

Goodreads Popularity February 2015

One fascinating thing: no one swapped positions this month. At the very least, Goodreads is showing some month to month consistency. Weir continues to lap the field. Mandel did great in February but that didn’t translate to a Nebula nomination: momentum on these charts doesn’t seem to be a good indicator of Nebula success. I’ll admit I thought Mandel’s success on Goodreads was going to translate to a Nebula nomination. Instead, it was Cixin Liu, much more modestly placed on the chart, who grabbed the nomination. Likewise, City of Stairs was doing better than The Goblin Emperor, but it was Addison who got the nod. At least in this regard, critical reception seemed to matter more than this kind of popularity.

Remember, Chaos Horizon is very speculative in this first year: what tracks the award? What doesn’t? I don’t know yet, and I’ve been following different types of data to see what pans out.

Interestingly, McDevitt and Gannon debut at the dead bottom of the chart. That’s one reason I didn’t have them in my Nebula predictions. That’s my fault and my mistake; I need to better diversify my tracking by also looking at Amazon ratings. I’ll be doing that for 2015, and the balance of Amazon and Goodreads stats might give us better insight into the field.

AS always, if you want to look at the full data (which goes back to October 2014), here it is: Hugo Metrics.

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