2014 Hugo Prediction: Indicators #7 and #8

Back from a restful summer vacation–and the Hugo awards are just around the corner. The final two indicators are as follows:

Indicator #7: Novel won a same year Nebula award. (85.6%)
Indicator #8: Novel received a same year Campbell nomination. (50%)

The Nebula is the huge indicator here: the Nebula award is high profile and, most importantly, awarded well before the Hugo. This gives Hugo readers a great chance to read the Nebula winner and then vote for it. We’ve had quite a few novels in the last 15 years sweep their way to both awards. Although some years are open–the Nebula winner is not nominated for the Hugo–the Nebula winner has won 6 out of the last 7 times it’s been eligible, with only last years upset of Kim Stanley Robinson by John Scalzi to mess up the data.

The Campbell isn’t as reliable, but it is a good indicator that the novel is on reader’s radar. Expect very heavy weighting to the Nebula, with modest weighting to the Campbell.

Tags: , ,

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Xeno Swarm

Multiple Estrangements in Philosophy and Science Fiction


Pluralism and Individuation in a World of Becoming

Space and Sorcery

Adventures in speculative fiction

The BiblioSanctum

A Book Blog for Speculative Fiction, Graphic Novels... and more!

The Skiffy and Fanty Show

Running away from the thought police on wings of gossamer and lace...

Relentless Reading

"A Veritable Paladin of Blogging!"


A little about me, a lot about books, and a dash of something else

Far Beyond Reality

Science Fiction and Fantasy Reviews

Andrew Liptak

three more from on high

Eamo The Geek

The Best In Sci-Fi And Fantasy Book Reviews by Eamon Ambrose

Read & Survive

How-To Read Books

Mountain Was Here

writing like a drunken seismograph

The Grimdark Review

The very best of fantasy.

SFF Book Reviews

random thoughts about fantasy & science fiction books

Philip K. Dick Review

A Re-read Project

Notes From the Darknet

Book reviews and literary discussion

%d bloggers like this: