2014 Hugo Prediction: Indicators #7 and #8

Back from a restful summer vacation–and the Hugo awards are just around the corner. The final two indicators are as follows:

Indicator #7: Novel won a same year Nebula award. (85.6%)
Indicator #8: Novel received a same year Campbell nomination. (50%)

The Nebula is the huge indicator here: the Nebula award is high profile and, most importantly, awarded well before the Hugo. This gives Hugo readers a great chance to read the Nebula winner and then vote for it. We’ve had quite a few novels in the last 15 years sweep their way to both awards. Although some years are open–the Nebula winner is not nominated for the Hugo–the Nebula winner has won 6 out of the last 7 times it’s been eligible, with only last years upset of Kim Stanley Robinson by John Scalzi to mess up the data.

The Campbell isn’t as reliable, but it is a good indicator that the novel is on reader’s radar. Expect very heavy weighting to the Nebula, with modest weighting to the Campbell.

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