2014 Hugo Prediction: Indicator #6

The Hugo is all about the book that’s most popular—so we have to find good indicators that reflect popularity. Unfortunately, winning a Hugo greatly increases the popularity of a book, so it’s hard to go back in time and find out how popular the book was before it won the award.

Right now, we can establish some more speculative indicators, based on Amazon ratings, and see if these become more reliable over time. The more people have reviewed a book, the more people have read it, thus more people can vote for it in the Hugo. Seems pretty straight-forward. There’s not much history here, so this category will be weighted relatively lightly.

This leaves us with:

Indicator #6: Novel was the most reviewed on Amazon.com at the time of the Hugo nomination. (75%)

So how about this year?

Wheel of Time 3,124 reviews
Ancillary Justice 232 reviews
Parasite 160 reviews
Neptune’s Brood 110 reviews
Warbound 109 reviews

This order echoes the Goodreads vote, except Correia and Stross swapped position (by one vote, though). Once again, this shows the huge advantage Jordan has in terms of sales in relation to the rest of the nominees.

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