2014 Hugo Prediction: Indicator #3
While the Nebula award showed a clear bias towards science fiction novels, the Hugo actually shows the opposite. While almost 70% of the nominees are science fiction novels, fantasy novels win 50% of the time. While 50% may not seem like much of a statistical advantage, it’s the 70%/30% nominee split that gives fantasy novels a statistical boost.
On a practical level, this makes sense: there are dedicated fantasy and science fiction blocks within the Hugo voters. Few readers are equally passionate about both genres, and since the fantasy nominee pool is smaller, fantasy voters tend to boost those nominees.
So, this works out to:
Indicator #3: Nominated novel is in the fantasy genre. (50%)
3 of this years nominees are best described as science fiction: Ancillary Justice, Parasite, and Neptune’s Children. Warbound looks like a detective/fantasy hybrid, leaving Jordan’s and Sanderson’s The Wheel of Time as the go to choice for fantasy readers.