2014 Nebula Prediction: April 5 Update

Thumb Ocean Thumb Ancillary Thumb Beside Thumb Hild Thumb Golem Thumb Red Thumb Stranger Thumb Fire

Here’s our 4/5/14 update, now including most of our indicators, save for the Locus Awards and Same Year Hugo nominations (those will come out soon). Also expect additional award nominations to change the outcomes.

1. Neil Gaiman, The Ocean at the End of the Lane (20.5%)
2. Ann Leckie, Ancillary Justice (18.0%)
3. Karen Joy Fowler, We Are All Completely Beside Ourselves (14.3%)
4. Nicola Griffith, Hild (13.2%)
5. Helene Wecker, The Golem and the Jinni (12.6%)
6. Linda Nagata, The Red: First Light (8.5%)
7. Sofia Samatar, A Stranger in Olondria (7.7%)
8. Charles E. Gannon, Fire with Fire (5.2%)

No changes in the order, although Wecker is creeping up, due to her solid performance on critic and reader’s lists. Gaiman’s lead has also been cut, as Leckie has (so far) delivered an impressive series of award nominations, including the Clarke, Dick, and the Tiptree.

To understand the formula, check out the Indicators.

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