2014 Nebula Prediction: Indicators

Here are the 12 indicators for the Nebula award, based on the last 13 years of data (since 2000):

Indicator #1: Nominee has previously been nominated for a Nebula. (84.6%)
Indicator #2: Nominee has previously been nominated for a Hugo. (76.9%)
Indicator #3: Nominee has previously won a Nebula award for best novel. (46.1%)
Indicator #4: Nominee was the year’s most honored nominee (Nebula Wins + Nominations + Hugo Wins + Nominations). (53.9%)

Indicator #5: Nominated novel was a science fiction novel. (69.2%).
Indicator #6: Nominated novel places in the Locus Awards. (92.3%)
Indicator #7: Nominated novel places in the Goodreads Choice Awards. (100%)

Indicator #8: Nominated novel appears on the Locus Magazine Recommended Reading List. (92.3%)
Indicator #9: Nominated novel appears on the Tor.com or io9.com Year-End Critics’ list. (100%)

Indicator #10: Nominated novel is frequently reviewed and highly scored on Goodreads and Amazon. (unknown%)
Indicator #11: Nominated novel is also nominated for a Hugo in the same year. (73.3%)
Indicator #12: Nominated novel is nominated for at least one other major SF/F award that same year. (69.2%)

These separate categories, when weighted, are combined together to create our prediction.

The indicators fall into three broad areas: past award performance, critical and reader reception of the book, and current year award performance. By utilizing all these different opinions in our Linear Opinion Pool, we come up with a predictive model.

Now, what remains is weighting and then testing the model against past years.

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