2014 Nebula Prediction: Indicators #11 and #12

The last of our two indicators. These focus on how our novels are doing this award season. Are they being nominated? Are they winning? There’s got to be some correlation—if you can win one award, you must be more likely to win another.

Unfortunately, these indicators are fraught with problems. Most of the major SF and F awards come out after the Nebula. In particularly, fantasy awards are often clustered in the back half of the year, including the World Fantasy and the British Fantasy.

The Hugo Nominations come out fairly early (April), and are a good indicator of whether or not they’ll win. Since 2000, 8 out of 13 winners were also nominated for the Hugo award. The indicator is actually a little better—in two years, 2004 and 2007, none of the Nebula Nominees was nominated for a Hugo.

The other indicator I want to work with is the broader idea that being nominated for a major award, such as the Clarke, the Tiptree, the Philip K. Dick, the Campbell, etc., is a good indicator. My list of major awards are the ones identified by SFADB, and are as follows: World Fantasy, British Fantasy, British SF, Campbell, Arthur Clarke, Philip K. Dick, Stoker, and Tiptree. Those cover most of the awards that get a lot of press. 10 of the previous 13 years, our eventual winner has claimed at least a nomination for one of those other awards, with the Campbell being the most reliable. Now, the Campbell is only for SF, and that puts our fantasy writers at a disadvantage. However, we already know fantasy is at a disadvantage. I’m going to have to figure out how to weigh this one. Since this is the first year of prediction, it’s a great trial run to see when award nominations come out. For now, I’m pinning this at 9/13. This tosses out the Jo Walton year, since Among Others (2012) was nominated for the World Fantasy and British Fantasy, and those nominations happened after the Nebula was awarded.

Indicator #11: The novel is also nominated for a Hugo in the same year. (72.3%)
Indicator #12: The novel is nominated for at least one other major SF/F award that same year. (69.2%)

We’re still early in award season, so not many have come out yet–just the Tiptree, the Clarke nominations, and the Philip K. Dick nominations. Here’s how our books are doing. Nominations are noted in the chart below; in case anyone wins, I’ll mark that with *:
Indicators 11-12
Leckie is obviously leading the way. I suspect she’s going to be a favorite on the award circuit this year: a big, ambitious SF novel that deals with gender issues is always going to get a lot of attention. Don’t read too much into the lack of nominations for Gaiman–the major fantasy awards haven’t moved yet.

So we’ll have to keep an eye on these indicators as more information comes out.

So that’s our 12 indicators! Now on to weighting!

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