2014 Nebula Prediction Version 1.0

Thumb Ocean Thumb Ancillary Thumb Beside Thumb Hild Thumb Golem Thumb Red Thumb Stranger Thumb Fire

Let’s get straight to the initial list:

1. Neil Gaiman, The Ocean at the End of the Lane (21.7%)
2. Ann Leckie, Ancillary Justice (13.7%)
3. Karen Joy Fowler, We Are All Completely Beside Ourselves (13.6%)
4. Nicola Griffith, Hild (12.2%)
5. Helene Wecker, The Golem and the Jinni (11.9%)
6. Linda Nagata, The Red: First Light (11.5%)
7. Sofia Samatar, A Stranger in Olondria (10.8%)
8. Charles E. Gannon, Fire with Fire (4.6%)

No real surprises. Gaiman is the clear favorite: a genre superstar writing a blockbuster novel that critics and readers loved. Who would have thought it? Ancillary Justice might be higher than you’d expect. My guess is that Leckie will emerge as the clear SF alternative to Gaiman, and we can’t ignore the Nebula’s bias towards SF writers. While Leckie lacks any Nebula history, her book did very well on year-end votes and critics’ lists. Fowler and Griffith did well given their award history but the reception to their books was mixed, largely because of their lack of strong genre elements. They particularly did poorly on voted (readers’) lists.

There’s still several more parts of the formula to be integrated and weighted, and some big indicators are on the horizon: the Hugo nominations and the Locus Readers’ Poll will be coming out later in the year. More discussion of methods to come, and then I’ll get into the formula.

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