2014 Nebula Prediction

This page is dedicated to my 2014 Nebula prediction. Click here to see the Too Early 2015 Nebula Prediction.

Nebula award was given to Ann Leckie for Ancillary Justice on May 17, 2014.

Ancillary JusticeOcean at the End of the LaneHildGolem and the Jinni
Completley Beside OurselvesRed First LightStranger in OlondriaFire with Fire

1. Ann Leckie, Ancillary Justice (25.8%) (winner)
2. Neil Gaiman, The Ocean at the End of the Lane (20.7%)
3. Nicola Griffith, Hild (11.2%)
4. Helene Wecker, The Golem and the Jinni (10.6%)
5. Karen Joy Fowler, We Are All Completely Beside Ourselves (9.8%)
6. Linda Nagata, The Red: First Light (8.2%)
7. Sofia Samatar, A Stranger in Olondria (7.7%)
8. Charles E. Gannon, Fire with Fire (6.0%)

Check out the most recent Prediction for a more in-depth discussion of the prediction model, or the Final Analysis for a discussion of the results.

Chaos Horizon is a website that predicts the Hugo and Nebula winners for Best Novel using statistical modeling. Long story short, the Hugo formula uses 12 different weighted indicators, based on data mining of the past 15 years of Hugo winners, to predict this year’s winner.

For more information on how the formula is derived, please see the Nebula Prediction Indicators and the Methodology.

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